The US deployment in the Caribbean that contributed to the containment of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appears to be entering a new phase. As Washington promotes a gradual transition toward an “open for business” Venezuela, attention is turning to another nearby nation: Cuba. According to recent reports in the Wall Street Journal, the US is actively exploring options for significant political change on the island, just 90 miles from the US mainland. With Venezuela already dominating the administration’s foreign policy agenda, Cuba presents both challenges and strategic opportunities.
Historical Context
US interest in Cuba has long been framed by national security considerations. Since the establishment of a communist government, the Cuban regime has maintained a confrontational stance toward Washington. Its alignment with the Soviet Union and pursuit of an expansionist ideology during the Cold War culminated in the Cuban Missile Crisis, a near-catastrophic confrontation that underscored the risks posed by a hostile state so close to US shores.
While the fall of the Soviet Union removed the island’s primary backer, concerns remain. Today, China is increasingly involved in Cuba, raising new security implications. A 2024 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) documented Chinese military intelligence infrastructure on the island, including large antennas capable of intercepting civilian and military communications within the US. CSIS analysts warn that such facilities could pose risks to operations conducted by US Southern Command and other bases in Florida.
Cuba’s Regional Influence
Beyond facilitating foreign intelligence operations, Cuba has historically pursued its own network of espionage. High-profile cases, including Defense Intelligence Agency analyst Ana Montes and former US ambassador Victor Rocha, illustrate the depth of Cuban intelligence penetration.
The island has also become a destination for American left-wing organizations. Groups such as the Democratic Socialists of America have reportedly participated in educational delegations to Cuba, raising concerns about ideological influence and advocacy for normalized US-Cuba relations.
Cuba’s outreach extends across Latin America. Its medical missions have provided the regime with financing while offering opportunities to extend political influence. Reports from Brazil, Bolivia, and other countries have alleged that Cuban medical personnel have been involved in local political activities, including organizing protests and supporting socialist candidates.
A Window of Opportunity
Some analysts suggest that current conditions may represent a moment of particular vulnerability for the Cuban regime. US-led efforts in Venezuela have weakened Havana by disrupting oil supplies and cutting off financial support, while traditional allies, including Russia and China, are increasingly focused elsewhere. This combination of reduced resources and shifting geopolitical priorities may create opportunities for the US to exert influence over the island.
Under the current administration, the US approach to foreign policy emphasizes credibility and action. Past initiatives in Venezuela, Panama, and Greenland illustrate a willingness to follow through on stated objectives. Cuba, given its proximity and strategic significance, appears to be the next focal point for Washington’s regional strategy. While any approach to the island will carry significant challenges, analysts suggest that the US may see an unprecedented chance to reshape the balance of power in the Caribbean.
